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Back in 2018, a mere a short phrase to electrify a Labour conference demonstrating Labour was falling out of love with its then leader. While not exactly stirring rhetoric, the phrase were greeted with wild cheering as delegates rose in an impromptu ovation.

When the noise subsided, the then-Brexit spokesman, remained at the lectern, visibly startled. He wasn't really accustomed to his addresses producing such a reaction. His statement was simply: "Nobody is ruling out staying in the EU". Context, however, is key.

In that deeply polarized period in 2018, straying from his agreed text in this way was inevitably viewed as laying down the gauntlet to the party leader, who was trying to prioritise Brexit voters in working-class seats over the pro-European instincts of his party. In just one speech, this seemingly cautious shadow Brexit secretary underwent a transformation – albeit temporarily – into a political gambler who championed most Labour MPs, members and voters against a leader he later succeeded.

The Evolution of Stance and Settled Issues

In the years since, much has happened, especially for Starmer himself. One of his first acts upon assuming leadership in 2020 was to declare the EU question had been settled by the 2019 national vote. And, at the last one, he repeatedly emphasised manifesto “red line” promises that forbade rejoining the EU, the single market or a customs union.

Like his predecessor, the PM's approach has focused on winning Brexit-y voters in target constituencies, despite survey data suggests many of them have died or changed their minds.

Pressure Building on the EU

However, the tables have turned and Starmer is now to face the pressures of being a party leader. While Europe is no longer the boiling pot in UK politics, a lid which was tightly sealed since Brexit is beginning to rattle once more.

The Prime Minister and Chancellor have ramped up their language about the devastation that leaving the EU has caused to the UK’s economy. This serves as an effective tool with which to beat the Reform UK leader, who seldom discusses his flagship policy was once his singular purpose and is still his sole political accomplishment.

Nevertheless, the extent of the economic harm, which by some estimates has left Britain with an economy that is significantly diminished than if it were still in the EU, dwarfs the minor adjustments thus far implemented by ministers. The PM's much-touted re-set deal negotiated with the EU in 2024 provides gains quantified in fractions of a percent.

Internal Pressure & Bolder Ideas

Rachel Reeves is one of those trying to overcome entrenched interior ministry opposition to an expansive version designed to boost growth program for young people by which youths can move between Britain and Europe to study or work.

The deputy prime minister has pondered publicly regarding the “self-evident” benefits of being in an EU customs pact, as several Labour backbenchers, such as the head of the powerful finance committee, recently supported an opposition proposal on customs union membership.

Although the Europe minister, who oversees UK-EU relations, now present at all cabinet sessions, insists the firm boundaries remain unchanged, there are ways these could be bypassed. One idea would be to declaring the commencement of negotiations now on a much bolder deal, to be featured in the next manifesto, to be enacted only after securing a fresh mandate.

The Prime Minister's Deep-Seated Doubts

Yet, Starmer has most recently damping it all down again cautioning that a return to an EU customs arrangement could undermine the trade pacts with the US, which he views as signature achievements of his premiership.

It is understood that the PM’s scepticism go still deeper, stemming from three further factors.

1. First, he believes any customs union agreement is now significantly more difficult as ministers are actively diverging from EU regulations in numerous sectors, including the environment.
2. Second, the exorbitant price demanded from Britain for entry into the EU’s new defence fund and the ensuing failure in talks has convinced British officials that European nations have little interest in cutting special deals with Britain and are more focused on demonstrating that Brexit does not work.
3. Lastly, the new US national security strategy, which has been welcomed by the Kremlin, is viewed by some influential figures in Number 10 as grounds for Britain to maintain distance from the EU.

An Alarming Document & Geopolitical Considerations

This bizarre and terrifying document asserts Europe is threatened by cultural extinction because of Muslim migration. It includes only one reference of the UK, found on a suggestion that the US government may interfere in our politics to foster the growth of “patriotic” parties.

However, instead of deciding that this renders the US an undependable ally, ministers is worried that aligning closer with Europe could upset the global balance by risking precarious American backing for Ukraine, Nato and much more besides.

Succession Chatter & The Echo from the Past

All of which returns us to 2018. The PM has consistently stated that address was not an attempt for the leadership but simply an attempt to preserve the “option” of staying in the EU being on the ballot paper. In fact, back then, he still supported a tailored trade agreement similar to the one he now appears to be opposing.

But it’s not been lost on Downing Street have noticed that Wes Streeting, widely considered would be a candidate for the leadership, is part of a clutch of senior ministers letting it be known they desire greater ambition on Europe.

Staff for Angela Rayner, another likely contender in a future race to replace Starmer, maintain she refuses to comment on her position on a customs union because it would only “fuel unnecessary gossip”.

The Clear Risk and A Prudent Reminder

The danger is obvious. If Starmer rules out more meaningful steps towards EU alignment, he allows rivals to occupy the space where most of the party's supporters are to be found.

It would be wise for Starmer to recall the impact that a short phrase had for him in 2018. Potential pathways for a big offer on EU relations that the prime minister ought to consider; he should explore them personally, rather than letting rivals adopt them as their own.